Two-Pager: Navigating an uncertain future

Disclaimer: This two-pager has been prepared by the CKN Secretariat and should not be considered the work of the individuals listed as authors of the report.

Key Takeaways

• The Netherlands’ role as a maritime logistics hub (“Gateway to Europe”) is strategically important but increasingly uncertain, with China’s influence expected to play a major role in shaping its future.
• Four scenarios highlight diverging futures based on globalisation vs. deglobalisation and China’s role in European logistics, ranging from strong Chinese dominance (“Belt and Road Rules”) to limited Chinese influence (“Own Region First”).
• In scenarios with strong Chinese involvement, strategic dependence, politicisation of logistics, and reduced Dutch autonomy increase, while cooperation brings economic benefits but also significant dilemmas.
• Across scenarios, geopolitical tensions (especially US–China rivalry), lack of reciprocity, and growing Chinese state influence risk distorting competition and challenging EU cohesion and Dutch decision-making.