Closed-door Roundtable: How resilient is China? Managing political and economic vulnerabilities in a fractured geopolitical environment (ECKN)

18 May 2026 (15:30-17:00)

EUBRUSSEL

Closed-door Roundtable: How resilient is China? Managing political and economic vulnerabilities in a fractured geopolitical environment (ECKN)

Organized in collaboration with Bruegel.

Facing a world of heightened geopolitical contest and a fragmenting global economy, China maintains a posture of confidence despite increasing external uncertainty and domestic stress. At the same time, the slowing momentum in parts of the economy, low sentiment among households and private businesses, and rising discontent about youth unemployment, begin to contest perceptions of Party legitimacy. And there are signs of inner political tensions, including high-profile anti-corruption drives and shake-ups among senior officials, as well as turmoil in the PLA.

The sober tone of China’s 2026 Government Work Report draft (published on 06 March), which mentions “considerable pressure” on China’s foreign trade and “deep-seated structural problems” at the domestic level, is highly expressive of rising concern in Beijing.

These developments raise questions about the level of institutional confidence and cohesion: are we witnessing a process of building strength and consolidation, or is the force of these actions equivalent to underlying pressures on the system? What are the views and perceptions from Beijing itself? Is China more likely to recalibrate its external relations, including with Europe, possibly with the goal of stabilizing its international and economic environment, or is it more likely to up the ante in coercion as a display of determination and global power?

In this closed-door discussion, we will examine China's current resilience outlook, focusing on political signals, economic pressures, and elite dynamics, and explore how this might impact China’s foreign policy and external relations, including implications for the European Union.

Introducing the ECKN

The European China Knowledge Network (ECKN) is a collaborative initiative founded by the China Knowledge Network (CKN), MERICS, and the Swedish National China Centre. This seminar, the fourth in ECKN’s founding series, will reflect on the value of policy-relevant knowledge exchange on China at the EU level.

CKN — a Dutch government-wide knowledge platform involving all ministries and hundreds of China experts — will share its experience in shaping informed and adaptive policy strategies. Together with its ECKN partners, CKN will highlight how this model now brings added value to the European context.